Regional Market Dynamics

The dynamics of regional markets like Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, and Montreal have been playing a significant role in shaping national home sales in Canada.

Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley

1. Declining Sales and Prices: In the Fraser Valley, which includes a substantial area of Metro Vancouver, a downward trend has been observed in key metrics. The region experienced a 12% drop in home sales in October 2023 compared to September 2023, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. This trend reflects the broader cooling effect that these areas have had on national home sales figures​​.
2. New Listings and Market Balance: The number of new listings in the Fraser Valley also decreased, contributing to a shift towards balanced market conditions. While total active listings in October 2023 were 1% higher than September 2023, the overall average home prices fell to $994,000, a 2.9% month-over-month decrease. This drop in prices, along with the decline in new listings, has implications for the national housing market trends​​.
3. Interest Rate Impact: High-interest rates have been a key factor influencing the real estate activities in the Fraser Valley and across British Columbia. The sustained high rates have led to a cooling effect on the market, which is expected to continue until there is a shift in policy rates​​.

Montreal

1. Stable Yet Slowing Market: In Montreal, the average home sold price in October 2023 was $578,399, representing a 3.8% annual increase. However, there was a 3.4% year-over-year decrease in home sales, indicating a slowdown in the market. Despite the slowing sales, active listings were up by 12% compared to the previous year, suggesting a balance between supply and demand​​.
2. High Mortgage Rates and Affordability Issues: The Montreal housing market has been influenced by high mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Many potential buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unaffordable mortgages and difficulties in saving for a downpayment. This cautious buyer behaviour has translated into a slowdown in sales, impacting the dynamics of the national market​​.

National Implications

The regional dynamics in areas like Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, and Montreal significantly impact national home sales in Canada. The cooling effect in these regions, driven by high-interest rates, declining sales, and shifting market balances, contributes to the overall trends seen in the Canadian real estate market. As these key regions navigate challenges like affordability and market balance, their influence on the national landscape continues to be noteworthy.