In recent weeks, Metro Vancouver’s real estate sector has seen a subtle decline in housing prices. This change, brought by a slight rise in regional inventory and the typical seasonal drop, is colouring the city’s market dynamics as autumn rolls in.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s (REBGV) Director of Economics and Data Analytics, Andrew Lis, delved into the latest trends. He highlighted a reluctance among homeowners to list properties due to this year’s peak mortgage rates, the highest in over a decade. This reluctance caused a listing shortage earlier in the year, keeping inventory scarce and driving prices up through spring and summer.
Yet, there’s a silver lining for potential buyers. The REBGV reports a 13 percent rise in home sales compared to last year, although it’s still 26 percent below the 10-year seasonal average.
September saw a leap in new and total listings in the real estate market. The month recorded 5,446 MLS listings, a noteworthy 28 percent rise compared to September 2022 and 5.2 percent above the 10-year seasonal average. Total listings also trended positively, growing over 9 percent, even though they’re still 6.2 percent below the 10-year seasonal average.
This increase in listings is nudging the market towards equilibrium. The sales-to-active listings ratio for September revealed detached homes at 12.6 percent, townhomes at 21.6 percent, and apartments at 21.3 percent, making the overall ratio 17.7 percent.
Andrew Lis interprets September’s data as a sign of renewed seller interest in the market, aligning new listing activity with long-term historical averages. The rise in new listings has modestly improved inventory levels, helping to alleviate the earlier scarcity. Coupled with the usual seasonal slowdown, the market is transitioning towards a balanced state.
The good news for buyers extends to a dip in the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver, now at $1,203,300. This figure is a 4.4 percent increase from September 2022 but a 0.4 percent decrease from August 2023.
Detached homes sales exceeded 570 last month, a 7.5 percent rise from September 2022. The benchmark price for this category is now $2,017,100, a 5.8 percent increase from the previous year but a marginal 0.1 percent decrease compared to August 2023.
Apartment sales also rose, with 988 sales last month, marking an over 11 percent increase compared to September 2022. The benchmark price for apartments is $768,500, a 5.8 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.2 percent decrease compared to August 2023.
Lastly, attached homes saw 352 sales in September, a growth of over 28 percent from the same period last year. The benchmark price for attached homes is $1,098,400, a 5.3 percent increase from September 2022 and a 0.5 percent dip compared to the August 2023 benchmark.
This recent shift in Metro Vancouver’s real estate market dynamics is a hopeful sign for both buyers and sellers. As autumn continues, the city’s housing market seems to be moving towards a more balanced and sustainable state. Whether this trend holds or veers in a new direction is yet to be seen, but for now, change is in the air in Metro Vancouver’s real estate sphere.
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